Georgia Senate Runoffs Forecast
Update 01/05/2021: 538 has stopped updating their database for these races, so this forecast is final.
Last November, both of Georgia’s senate seats were up for grabs, but since no candidate in either race won over 50% of the vote, the top two vote-getters in each race qualified for a runoff on January 5th. As vice-president-elect, Kamala Harris (D-CA) will hold the tie breaking vote in the Senate if it comes down to a 50-50 split, effectively giving the Democratic Party slight control the Senate. This will only happen if Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both win their runoffs against Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler respectively. However, if either Republican wins, the GOP majority in the chamber will be preserved.
Regular Election
This is the runoff for the regular election, where incumbent Senator David Perdue (R) is looking for reelection against Jon Ossoff. Perdue won the first round, but was unable to secure more than 50% of the vote, triggering the runoff.
Chance of Winning
This is the likelihood of a candidate winning, not a guarantee.
Forecasted Vote Share
This is what the vote share could look like on election day using polling averages.
Range of Forecasted Votes
A plot of the frequency of simulated vote shares for each candidate.
Vote Share over Time
A look at how the range of the forecasted vote share has changed over the course of time. The shaded region represents the 90% confidence interval
Chance of Winning over Time
How the candidates’ odds of victory have changed over the course of time.
Special Election
Senator Kelly Loeffler was appointed to her seat by Governor Brian Kemp (R) to replace Senator Johnny Isakson (R) who resigned. For special elections, Georgia holds a blanket primary (more commonly known as a “jungle primary”) where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. No one was able to receive the necessary 50%, so Loeffler is now facing Raphael Warnock in a bid to serve out the rest of Isakson’s term.
Chance of Winning
This is the likelihood of a candidate winning, not a guarantee.
Forecasted Vote Share
This is what the vote share could look like on election day using polling averages.
Range of Forecasted Votes
A plot of the frequency of simulated vote shares for each candidate.
Vote Share over Time
A look at how the range of the forecasted vote share has changed over the course of time. The shaded region represents the 90% confidence interval
Chance of Winning over Time
How the candidates’ odds of victory have changed over the course of time.
Other Stuff
Check out our 2020 Presidential Forecast.
Polling data from 538.com.
Charts created using Plotly for R
Page built by: @zecellomaster
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