2021 MLS Forecast
An Elo-based forecast model for the 2021 Major League Soccer (MLS) Season that predicts matches and end of season results. How does this work?
See the Eastern Conference and Western Conference forecasts.
Current Forecast
Use the scroll bar to see more probabilities. It is important to note that this represents a likelihood of events happening (even “0%” and “100%” are approximations).
Legend
Elo: The current Elo ratings for all teams. The average Elo rating is 1500 points.
Avg. Points: The average number of points the teams are forecasted to have by the end of the season.
Avg. Goal Diff.: The average goal difference the teams are forecasted to have by the end of the season.
Make Playoffs: The chance a team has to make the 2021 MLS Playoffs. The top 7 teams in each conference qualify.
First Round Bye: The chance a team has to win their conference and clinch a first round bye in the playoffs.
Win Supp. Shield: The chance a team has to win the 2021 Supporter’s Shield, which is given to the best team in the MLS.
Make Semifinals: The chance a team has to make the playoff semifinals.
Make Conf. Champ.: The chance a team has to make the conference championship.
Make MLS Cup: The chance a team has to make the 2021 MLS Cup.
Win MLS Cup: The chance a team has to win the 2021 MLS Cup.
Changes Over Time
How the forecast has altered over the course of the season.
Update (10/24/21): On 10/23, New England won the Supporter’s Shield. As such, this visualization will no longer be updated.
Match Predictions
Next Matches
What’s “SIWI”? : The “Should I Watch It?” rating is a measure of how interesting a game could be depending on both how evenly matched the two teams are and how good they are compared to the rest of the leauge. A high SIWI indicates two strong teams are facing off while a low SIWI indicates two weak teams, or a good team and a weak team are clashing. The highest possible rating is a 100, while the lowest score is 25.
Completed Matches
All Upcoming Matches
Other Stuff
2021 MLS scores courtesy SportsReference.com.
MLS Archive Data courtesy Joseph Mohr.
This forecast uses the scripts and data found in our MLS Elo Forecast repository.
Follow us on Twitter: @theprforecast
Check out our other forecasts.
Page built by @zecellomaster.
Found any errors? Want to make a suggestion? Have any comments? Email us: theprojectionroomdata@gmail.com