2020 Presidential Election Forecast
Hi there! This is the archived page of our 2020 election forecast. Click here to go back to the main page.
Update (11/14/20): The final calls have been made by all major networks, and it appears Joesph R. Biden Jr. has won the electoral college 306-232, a margin of 74 votes. Ironically, this is the same result as Donald J. Trump’s 2016 victory over Hillary R. Clinton (if the faithless electors are discarded). The state calls are enough to do some preliminary analysis (which will come eventually), but the overal vote count will still take time, so a more in-depth look about where the model failed and succeeded will be a bit longer down the road.
As for what is next, both of Georgia’s senate seats are going into runoffs that will occur early next year and this site will attempt to forecast (perhaps even live forecast) those races. A lot is still to come, so stay tuned!
Note: This model has been locked since 11/03. On that day, I wrote about what it was forecasting. You can still find that article here.
Before we dive in, is important to note a couple of things:
1) This forecast is based a lot on polling data, and while better quality polls are weighted more than worse ones, it is still subject to pollster error and is only a snapshot in time.
2) It is important to note the fact that as with most numerical predictions, this only tells the likelihood of an event and therefore not a guarentee of what is going to happen.
3) The model assumes an election where all the votes cast are counted and the election overall is run fairly. Recent events, comments, and actions have cast some doubt on whether or not that will happen this year or at least to the extent it did in past elections, so uncertainty may be more than expected.
Presidential Election Forecast
Forecasted Chance of Winning
This tells the probability that a candidate will win the election via the electoral college. The higher the chance, the more pathways that candidate has to 270. If no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, a much more complicated process is used to choose the president.
Chance of Winning Over Time
This shows how the chances of winning have modified over time.
Electoral College Map
The percent values represent the chance of victory for the incumbent, Donald J. Trump. Red indicates the likelihood of a Trump win while blue indicates a likelihood of a Biden win. The darker the shade, the higher the chance, with white being a 50%-50% tossup
A Different Perspective
Visual developed by Brandon Wilson (@KnightLizard) - Computer Science Undergraduate
This view shows all the races with the sizes representing the number of electoral votes they have, the horizontal axis representing the margin of victory (negative for Biden, positive for Trump), and the color/vertical axis representing who has the better odds of winning there (red for Trump, blue for Biden). The darker the shade, the higher the chance.
Electoral Votes Over Time
A look at how the range of forecasted electoral votes have changed over the course of time. Dotted lines represent the 90% confidence interval for each candidate. Remember, 270 votes are required to win.
Spread of Electoral Votes
The spread of the electoral votes for the winner in all of the 40,000 simulations done to make this forecast.
Forecasted Vote Share
This is a look at what the vote share could look like on election day using historical data and polling averages.
Popular Vote Over Time
A look at how the range of the forecasted vote share has changed over the course of time. Dotted lines represent the 90% confidence interval for each candidate.
Battleground Races
These are the races that are either the most interesting or most likely to get interesting
| Arizona | Colorado |
| Florida | Georgia |
| Iowa | Maine (Statewide) |
| Michigan | Minnesota |
| Nevada | New Hampshire |
| New Mexico | North Carolina |
| Ohio | Pennsylvania |
| Texas | Wisconsin |
| Maine CD-2 | Nebraska CD-2 |
Tipping Point
The tipping point is defined as the state that gets the eventual winner their 270th electoral vote. Here is a list of the races that are most likely to do just that, along with the forecasted margins of victory (negative if Biden leads, positive if Trump leads). Note that Nebraska and Maine use a slightly different system to allocate electors than winner-take-all, so the statewide vote for both is denoted with a (S) while the congressional districts are labeled individually.
Big Board
Highlighted bold states are battleground races. Note that the margin of victory is negative if Biden leads and positive if Trump leads. Nebraska and Maine use a slightly different system to allocate electors than winner-take-all, so the statewide vote for both is denoted with a (S) while the congressional districts are labeled individually.
All Races
Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | District of Columbia | Florida | Georgia | Hawaii | Idaho | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maine (Statewide) | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska (Statewide) | Nevada | New Hampshire | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | South Carolina | South Dakota | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming | Maine CD-1 | Maine CD-2 | Nebraska CD-1 | Nebraska CD-2 | Nebraska CD-3 |
Polling data from 538.com.
Charts created using Google Sheets and Google Visualization API
The Pre-Election Estimation System is powered by a group of MATLAB scripts.
All data presented can be found on the official online repository.
Page built by: @zecellomaster @KnightLizard
Found any errors? Want to make a suggestion? Have any comments? Email us: theprojectionroomdata@gmail.com